The ACA Vote Isn’t Going to Flip Control of Congress
After the House narrowly approved legislation repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act, House Democrats loudly proclaimed that dozens of Republican lawmakers will lose their seats in the 2018 elections as a result. While I, personally, hope the Senate completely rewrites the bill (or fails to pass anything at all), claims of the House GOP’s impending doom may be exaggerated.
In my experience in politics and government (as Mike Bloomberg’s campaign manager, as deputy governor of Illinois and as Chuck Schumer’s communications director), voters rarely make decisions based on one policy issue—especially in swing districts. Because both parties insist on gerrymandering districts (meaning they draw them so only a Democrat or Republican could possibly win), most races are really decided in the primary. In most safe Democratic districts, the Republican challenger is irrelevant. In most safe Republican districts, not voting for the ACA repeal would be a problem. (Read)