Some initial thoughts on the NY primary results (some of the races still counting votes)

Credit Corey Torpie-05062018-BengaliCommunityOutreach-6.jpg

(1). There’s no machine anymore. When the guy who controls Queens County gets killed in his own district, that’s all the proof you need. In reality, none of boroughs have had any real turnout facility in years, but this makes it official. Also may mean that the county leader itself is soon to become an anachronism.

(2). The Schumer model works. As of this writing, Adem’s down by around 700 votes. Hopefully he pulls it out. But either way, he proved that by just working incredibly hard, by knocking on every door, by putting yourself personally in front of every voter possible, you can take out a lazy incumbent (or at least come very close).

(3). Bodes well for Nixon, badly for Cuomo. Siena has Cuomo way up but there’s a major disparity between old school polling and modern day elections. I still think Andrew wins the primary but she’s going to way out-perform the current numbers (exceeding 40% is very doable).

(4). Council dynamics now totally different. Crowley was a kingmaker in every Speaker’s race. Hard to see that continuing. Maybe someone in Queens steps up but even more likely that power fractures completely. Means the next Speaker’s race will be radically altered and means that Crowley priorities may not be as solid in this Council.

(5). The old approach is totally shattered. The 2016 presidential already proved it but tonight is further evidence that voters care about authenticity, emotion, genuineness. They don’t care about endorsements from other politicians. The inside game is far less meaningful than it used to be (although arguably Grimm should have done better under this theory but SI voters know Dan really well and genuinely like him). Ambition and a sterling resume isn’t enough. You have to stand for things (truly stand for them) and that has to be exceptionally evident in everything you do.

Bradley Tusk